Such a fortnightly projection was presented to the state cabinet by the public health department and it became one of the grounds to solidify the decision taken on Tuesday for a near-lockdown in the state.
Statistics show the city, which currently has 83,450 active cases, may breach the 1 lakh mark by May 2 and reach an estimated 1.46 lakh cases if the current growth rate continues. In that eventuality, the city would fall short of 6,433 oxygen beds, 1,477 ICU beds and 121 ventilators.
For Thane, too, the prediction is that active cases could multiply from 80,000 to 1.22 lakh, leading to a shortage of nearly 5,000 oxygen beds, 1,267 ICU beds and 432 ventilator beds.
By May 2, other high-burden districts, such as Pune, Nagpur and Nashik, are estimated to add between 54% and 58% of the curent figure of active cases.
Nagpur district has been one of the worst-hit in the second wave and may face a shortfall of 32,364 isolation beds, 10,476 oxygen beds and nearly 2,000 ICU beds if the active cases reach the predicted 1.23 lakh.
An official said the projected numbers were based on the growth rate and daily detection of cases, among other parameters.
“With restrictions, the projections may or may not come true, but it provides a baseline for districts to augment their infrastructure,” he said, adding that nearly all districts have been projected to show a jump.
Earlier, the Centre had predicted that the state would hit 11 lakh active cases by the end of the month.
“Most districts from the Marathwada region are grappling with the current active cases. If the projections come true, the health infrastructure in most of the districts will totally collapse. This was one of the reasons why the demand for a strict lockdown was raised in the state cabinet,” a minister from Marathwada said.
Rural areas are reporting more cases than cities. In Bhandara district, acting district health officer Dr Shekhar Naik said the number of hospitalised patients had already surpassed the available Covid-19 bed strength.